Transactions - 3/28/07

Meaty Urologists
(cap +$1,000,000, released +$2,250,000)
Sign:
Austin Kearns ($250,000)
Josh Willingham ($250,000)
Jon Rauch ($250,000)
Wily Mo Pena ($250,000)

DL:
Jeremy Hermida

Release:
AJ Pierzynski ($750,000)
Nate Robertson ($1,250,000)
Ty Wiggington ($250,000)

2 Piece & a Biscuit
(cap +$750,000)
Sign:
John Maine ($250,000)
Kevin Youkilis ($250,000)
Tony Sipp ($250,000)

DL:
Mike Timlin
Juan Rivera
Nick Johnson

Guitar Face
(cap +$1,250,000, released +$1,000,000)
Sign:
Damaso Marte ($250,000)
Nick Punto ($250,000)
Ryan Madson ($250,000)
Luis Vizcaino ($250,000)

Release:
Paul Maholm ($0)
Zack Duke ($250,000)
Brendan McCarthy ($500,000)
Melky Cabrera ($250,000)

Recall from AAA:
Morgan Ensberg ($250,000)

Send to AAA:
Johnny Gomes
Aubrey Huff

Uncle Teddy & the Azzkickerz
(cap +$1,00,000)
Sign:
Jorge Julio ($250,000)
Carl Pavano ($250,000)

Release:
Elijah Dukes ($0)

Assign to AAA:
Cameron Maybin
Brendan Wood
Evan Longoria

Recall to MLB:
Joe Borowski ($250,000)
Xavier Nady ($250,000)

DL:
Josh Johnson

Thunder-Guts
(cap +$250,000)
Recall to MLB:
Lastings Milledge ($250,000)

Too Drunk to Function
(cap +$250,000)
Sign:
Kevin Millwood ($250,000)

DL:
Pedro Martinez

Trade Announcement: Thunder-Guts and Guitar Face

After review of the trading policy by the league owners, the trade between Thunder-Guts and Guitar Face has been finalized.

Thunder-Guts get:
Johan Santana, SP ($13,250,000)
Brad Hawpe, RF ($2,000,000)

Guitar Face gets:
Vladimir Guerrero, RF ($9,000,000)
Huston Street, RP ($4,500,000)
Kelvim Escobar, SP ($1,750,000)

PECOTA Projections

As promised, here are the standings as PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus' projection system) sees them:

	W - L	%	GB
TP	162-150	.519	--
JL	161-151	.516	1
JR	160-152	.513	2
TR	160-152	.513	2
DI	158-154	.506	4
SK	156-156	.500	6
BB	153-159	.490	9
AJ	151-161	.484	11
SC	149-163	.478	13
EF	149-163	.478	13

Top Offenses: Ben (.530), Shaun(.515), Eric(.514)
Top Staffs: Tony(.559), Justin(.540), Josh(.527)

Once again, it looks like a pretty tight race with less than one series seperating first through 8th.

Things That I Find Interesting
• ESPN thinks Thomas has the best staff, but PECOTA has him 5th.
• ESPN thinks Shaun will be last, while PECOTA projects a .500 season.
• Both systems put Justin in the top 3 and Eric and Scott in the bottom 3.
• Largest differences between the two systems: PECOTA likes Shaun's offense to win 16 more games than ESPN, and Justin's offense to lose 10 more games than ESPN. It also likes Ben's and Thomas' staffs to lose 13 more games than ESPN.

Disclaimer: Once again, these are not my opinions or how I think things will go down. All I did was stick numbers into Excel and this is what came out. This time, I DID try to adjust for the active roster, putting players in their correct positions and not counting bench at all. I had to make some decisions about bullpen make-up so I chose the one that maximized wins for each team.

League Rules & Team Salaries

Click the links on the right under "League Information" to view the rules and the list of rosters with salaries. Any changes we make to them will be updated ASAP. If there's any other information folks think would be helpful to put up there with it, let me know.

Pythagorean Projections

Eric inspired me by posting the comparisons of projected stats yesterday. Being the dork that I am, I decided to do Pythagorean Projections of each category. These give an expected wins total for each team:

	W - L	%	GB
TR	165-147	.529	--
JR	163-149	.522	2
BB	158-154	.507	7
TP	157-155	.503	8
JL	157-155	.504	8
DI	156-156	.501	9
AJ	154-158	.493	11
EF	153-159	.492	12
SC	153-159	.490	12
SK	143-169	.460	22

Top Offenses: Eric (.537), Ben(.522), Justin(.519)
Top Staffs: Thomas(.560), Tony(.540), Justin(.525)

Looks like a pretty tight race. I feel much better about my team after doing this, though I suspect some of you will feel worse about yours. ESPN thinks that Shaun's "Future Squad" will need some help this season. If anyone wants to know the more detailed information, I have expected wins broken out by each category. If I get time, I'm going to do the same thing using PECOTAs.

Disclaimer: Just so everyone knows, these are not my opinions or how I think things will go down. All I did was stick numbers into Excel and this is what came out. As with Eric's numbers, it counts all players on the 30 man roster and does not adjust for bench players.